Hi Zack!
Thank you very much for your comment, I love hearing points of view when it comes to such an argument.
I think it is too early to determine whether Tesla would win.
1) Correct, but if one thing is obvious in this industry, it's that quality of product is what matters. Apple did not start with the iPhone. They started with the mac and expanded to something that is not their game, yet because their product was phenomenal, it defied odds. The game is still being played, you will be able to assess yourself when you see the quality of a Ford electric car in a few years compared to Tesla's.
2 & 3) Also correct, this I agree with strongly. Although usually, in the tech industry, someone pioneers, and others follow. Competitor battery companies will show up sooner or later. Technology is too fast to follow up with, specifically the energy industry. https://theconversation.com/nuclear-fusion-record-broken-what-will-it-take-to-start-generating-electricity-podcast-177773
4) Here, I slightly disagree. Yes, it's a battery war. However, the moment Tesla focuses on that rather than what the end consumer actually wants, 'a good car', is when someone else would swoop in.
As a person, I love Teslas. However, as a business consultant, I am very interested in watching this war, whether it is a battery or a car one. If Tesla wins and is the dominant innovator in a few years, then that would be a fantastic business case. Similarly, if they stumble upon a strong third competitor, that would also be interesting to witness.
Thanks for this brain tease, Zack!
Al